The Great One vs. Modern Hockey Players: Analyzing the Impact of the Salary Cap Era

In the ongoing debate over the greatest hockey player of all time, the name Wayne Gretzky invariably emerges as a leading contender. Such debates are common across sports and eras, with each generation having its own icons and legends. For those of us who witnessed Gretzky’s brilliance firsthand, there is a natural bias stemming from the emotional attachment we hold for the players we grew up watching. However, beyond personal sentiments, it is essential to delve into statistical analysis to ascertain the true extent of Gretzky’s dominance and evaluate any claims of superiority made by contemporary stars like McDavid or Crosby. As someone who has observed Gretzky’s greatness on the ice, I acknowledge the need to reconcile nostalgia with objective analysis to determine the veracity of his legendary status.

We all know about his 92 goals in one season, and you may know about his atom season, when he had 378 goals, 139 assists for 517 points in 85 games. I want to dive in deeper though to get into some amazing stats that will help us understand just how incredible he was.

Let us look at some more phenomenal Gretzky stats. This next one is important because we must measure him against who he played with. His career average point gap in scoring titles – a staggering 49 points epitomizes his unparalleled dominance over his contemporaries. For comparison, between 2005-06 and 2022-23, there was a grand total of 171 points separating first and second place scoring leaders, averaging a 9.5 points per year. Gretzky’s career average alone of 49 points is light years ahead. From 1981-87 he had 65, 72, 79, 73, 74, and 75 pts gap over the second-place player. Gretzky combined for a total 438-point gap alone in that period. Comparing that to today, McDavid had an average of only 18 pts each year to the second-place finisher between 2020 and 2023. McDavid’s 25 pts on Draisaitl in 2021-22 is the biggest point gap finish between any first and second place players in 31 years since … you guessed it, Wayne Gretzky over Brett Hull in 1990-91 (163 pts vs 131). To put this all into perspective, McDavid has a career (up to 2022-23) total 83 pts in points gap over eight seasons with an average of only 10 pts per – which is 1/5 of Gretzky’s 49-point career average. For Gretzky’s first eight seasons he had 470 total pt gaps with a seasonal average of a 58-pts gap on the next best player. I will point out that in hockey history its exceedingly rare for point gaps between the first and second player of the season to be more than a dozen points. Going back more than 50 years, other than Gretzky’s sensational records, the closest McDavid’s point gap came to was 1972-73 when Phil Esposito beat Bobby Clarke by 26 pts. The only other instance in history was Lemieux over Gretzky in 88-89 by 31 pts. Lemieux did this once and is the only player other than Gretzky going back to at least 1960 with more than 30 points. Gretzky did this how many times? Seven! Again, he did this by a 65, 72, 79, 73, 74, 75, and 32 gap pts. He was from another planet.

Gretzky led the league in assists in each of his first 13 seasons, and 16 times overall – 80 percent of his seasons. He led the league in assists in 16 of 20 seasons. Not only did Gretzky win 13 straight assist titles, but he also led the league in assists at 36 and 37 before retiring at 38. He finished first in assists in 1997 and 5th with 97 pts – at 36 years old! Lemieux was 1st in points that year with (122), and 3rd place with 50 goals – 2 away from 1st. Jagr finished behind Gretzky in fifth place with 95 pts. FYI – The following five years Jagr won consecutive scoring titles.

Drawing comparisons between Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux offers valuable insights into the greatness of both players and their respective eras in hockey history. Mario Lemieux, often hailed as Gretzky’s closest rival, delivered commendable performances but ultimately fell short of matching Gretzky’s lofty standards. Lemieux’s career spanned different periods, allowing for a broader perspective on the evolution of the game and the challenges faced by players across generations.

Lemieux’s time came both before and at the start of the salary cap era, as well as during his remarkable comeback from cancer, highlighting his extraordinary talent and resilience. Well into his 30s, his scoring rate of 1.35 points per game during the later stage of his career is a testament to his enduring skill and impact on the ice, despite facing significant obstacles.

Comparing Lemieux to a contemporary player such as Jagr – who both played with Gretzky. Jagr also played many seasons with Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby. This provides a context for understanding the level of competition and talent during the periods he played with Gretzky and after. It also underscores the immense skill and influence of players like Lemieux, who competed against a variety of opponents and adapted to changes in the game over the years.

Enter Jagr, a linchpin bridging eras with a career spanning from 1990 through the salary cap era. Jagr’s points-per-game totals offer a comparative lens, aligning with modern players and underscoring the impact of the salary cap on individual player statistics. Jagr is another contemporary who played with both Gretzky and Lemieux and many other players after the salary cap of 2005, before retiring at 46 years old recently in 2018. There is no disagreement anywhere about Jagr’s ability as he is second on the all-time points list. For the naysayers against Gretzky, Jagr is possibly the only person that we can effectively use to solidify Gretzky’s talent to bridge the two eras.

From 30-40 years of age Jagr had a 1.03 ppg. From 40 – 50 years old he had 242 pts for a .68 ppg! In the first 3 years of the salary cap, he was scoring 1.17 ppg at the age of 37 putting him 5th behind Malkin, Thornton, Ovechkin (1.30 ppg), and Crosby (1.37 ppg). They were both 23 and 21 years old. Overall, using Lemieux and Jagr as a reference point to contextualize Gretzky’s greatness enhances the discussion.

Turning 30 in January of the 1990-91 season marked a significant milestone in Gretzky’s career, but it was far from the end of his dominance on the ice. From that season onward, Gretzky amassed an impressive 878 points in just 640 games, showcasing his remarkable scoring ability and enduring skill even as he entered his 30s. This remarkable feat translates to an average of 1.37 points per game, placing him among elite company in NHL history.

In fact, when comparing Gretzky’s points per game after the age of 30 to other legendary players, he ranks behind only retired players Mario Lemieux, Bobby Orr, and Mike Bossy. This illustrious group represents some of the most iconic figures in hockey history, underscoring Gretzky’s enduring impact and consistent performance even as he entered the latter stages of his career.

All-time PPG (more than 600 games):

1. Wayne Gretzky: 1.92 – 1487 games

2. Mario Lemieux: 1.88 – 915 games

4. Connor McDavid: 1.51 – 623 games*

5. Mike Bossy: 1.51 – 752 games

8. Bobby Orr: 1.39 – 657 games

12. Sidney Crosby: 1.25 – 1245 games

19. Nikita Kucherov: 1.18 – 703 games*

20. Leon Draisaitl: 1.18 – 694 games*

41. Ovechkin: 1.09 – 1401 games

* PPG likely to shrink as their career progresses.

Even without his extraordinary goal-scoring ability, Gretzky’s consistency and dominance are undeniable. He would have achieved 11 consecutive 100-point seasons and claimed four scoring titles solely through assists, showcasing his unparalleled playmaking prowess. And how about his 51-game point streak occurred during the 1983-1984 NHL season. It began on October 5, 1983, and ended on January 28, 1984. During this remarkable streak, Gretzky accumulated an astounding 61 goals and 92 assists for a total of 153 points, and it was still only the end of January! Could you imagine if this happened today? This streak is widely regarded as one of the most impressive records in NHL history and highlights Gretzky’s extraordinary scoring prowess and consistency on the ice.

His accolades extend beyond individual scoring titles, as evidenced by his eight consecutive MVP awards, a feat unmatched in the NHL and rare across all major professional sports leagues. Comparing Gretzky to his peers in other sports further highlights his unparalleled greatness, as no other player in the NBA, NFL, or MLB has won more than four consecutive MVP awards.

If we were to halve Gretzky’s entire career statistics, he would still rank among the top 20 all-time point scorers in NHL history. His unparalleled ability to consistently produce over nine seasons with 150 or more points.

Gretzky’s versatility as a player is evident in his ability to excel in all facets of the game, including shorthanded goals. His 23 shorthanded goals in a two-season stretch are a testament to his exceptional skill and hockey IQ, a record that remains unmatched to this day. Additionally, his remarkable performance after turning 30 further solidifies his status as one of the greatest players in NHL history, ranking fourth all-time in points per game among players aged 30 and older.

This brings us back to the question of whether modern players are reaching their full potential under the salary cap constraints. While the salary cap promotes parity (I think there is for US-based teams – again, another discussion is required) and fair competition across the league, I believe it also limits the ability of individual players to maximize their performance. Players like Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid have immense talent and potential, but they are constrained by the team’s budgetary limitations.

Imagine a scenario where Crosby, Alex Ovechkin, and McDavid all played on the same team – a feat that would have been possible in the pre-salary cap era. Instead of being boxed in by their team’s budget, these players would have the opportunity to fully unleash their potential alongside other top-tier talent. The salary cap era restricts this possibility, preventing players from reaching their peak performance.

It is important to note that the 2021-22 season did have an uptick in production. As we compare 2021-22 vs 1983-84, I don’t see much of a difference except for you-know-who at the bottom. For any fence-sitters saying “But…but…this comparison really hammers home how great Gretzky was.

2021-22

McDavid 123

Huberdeau 115

Gaudreau 115

Draisatl 110

Kaprisov 108

Vs

1983-84

Coffee 126

Goulet 122

Stastny 119

Bossy 118

Pederson 116

Gretzky 205

Looking at reasons why scoring isn’t the same as it used to be; back in the day, hockey teams didn’t have the salary cap constraints they do now. We all know this. This whole subject requires another post because I have strong views as to why records are just not happening anymore. Anyhow, with teams prior to the salary cap they could spend as much as they wanted, similar to MLB and I will throw in the NBA as they do have a soft cap and a luxury tax (created by none other than Bettman himself). Teams could assemble the best possible lineup. Look at it this way, if you could play golf with Tiger Woods and his friends instead of your usual buddies – naturally, you would improve by playing with better players. This environment allowed teams to surround themselves with top-tier talent, fostering individual development and performance to meet their potential.

Fast forward to today, and the salary cap has changed the landscape of the game. Teams can’t do this anymore and players are not afforded that golf scenario. Every player salary on a team is prorated under their cap and assigned a dollar value; teams must carefully manage their budget to assemble a competitive roster without overspending. What’s new about that right? It’s akin to fitting puzzle pieces together – each piece (or player) has a certain value, and teams must balance their lineup accordingly. In the past owners would just buy a larger puzzle. In today’s world, each team needs at least one top scorer, but is he really the guy they wanted because they do must ensure they have at least a decent squad behind him – particularly if your attendance is low. But for sell-out arenas, do they really care? Like putting a Ferrari engine in a KIA, it’s not going to get far and its not going to be competitive. It is a completely different financial strategy now.

While the salary cap era promotes parity (For US teams that is – again, this subject requires another post) and fair competition in the NHL, it also limits the potential of individual players to reach their peak performance. Gretzky, Lemieux, and Jagr’s era saw unparalleled dominance due to the absence of salary cap constraints, allowing players to maximize their talent and excel on the ice with other talented players. In the modern era, the salary cap serves as both an advantage and a hindrance, shaping the landscape of the game while maybe not influencing an individual player potential.

Back to Gretzky – if you took all of his goals away, he would still be the NHL all-time leader in points, and 42 ahead of Jagr. Another amazing stat is the career point gap between every single player in NHL history from Jagr down. It’s a 24 points average. Check the all-time points list if you don’t believe it (https://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?reportType=allTime&seasonFrom=19171918&seasonTo=20242025&gameType=2&sort=points,goals,assists&page=0&pageSize=50). Now, the total point gap between Gretzky and Jagr … an astronomical 936 pts! That is McDavid’s entire career point total right there, or 60% of each Crosby and Ovechkin’s total points. Out of 1,457 games, he had only 266 x 0-point games but made it up with 458 x 3+ games and 217 x 4+ point games. The 458 3+ point games are a combined 5.5 years getting 3+ points per game. Unbelievable! Who could even do this now?

Was Gretzky’s era, or the one before it better than today? Perhaps. Then again, perhaps not. It’s a question that continues to spark debate. Maybe the players back then, if equipped with the modern conveniences like today’s trainers, power drinks, health standards, dieticians, software programs, surgeons, and innovative technologies, could have reached the same heights as contemporary players. But alas, we will never have a definitive answer. Similarly, we cannot definitively compare today’s players to those of the past. However, one thing remains certain: Wayne Gretzky stands out far above as the greatest hockey player to have ever graced the ice, and quite possibly, the greatest athlete in the history of any sport.

Some key stats and records… there are too many!